A Very Important Update on the Auckland Property Market
They said survive till 2025. They were wrong.
Auckland has just come through another flat year, and it is important to be clear about where the market actually stands. Since the peak in 2021, house prices across Auckland are down over 20%. This is not opinion or sentiment. It is a fact, supported by the data.
After several challenging years, we now appear to be at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. The first interest rate increase arrived in December 2025, and most economists are forecasting interest rates to remain broadly flat through to the end of 2027. The Reserve Bank is currently forecasting house price growth of 3.9% in 2026.
They said survive till 2025. They were wrong.
Auckland has just come through another flat year, and it is important to be clear about where the market actually stands. Since the peak in 2021, house prices across Auckland are down over 20%. This is not opinion or sentiment. It is a fact, supported by the data.
After several challenging years, we now appear to be at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. The first interest rate increase arrived in December 2025, and most economists are forecasting interest rates to remain broadly flat through to the end of 2027. The Reserve Bank is currently forecasting house price growth of 3.9% in 2026.
While that provides some optimism, my view is more conservative and focused on the longer term.
I believe it could take 5 to 8 years for Auckland house prices to return to their 2021 levels. Yes, 2026 should deliver moderate price growth, and 2027 is likely to see stronger gains as confidence improves and the cycle matures. However, history is clear. Every up cycle is eventually followed by a down cycle. Over this decade, I expect Auckland house prices to remain relatively flat overall. The era of prices doubling every few years is behind us. We are operating in a very different economic and financial environment.
Supply remains a major factor shaping the market. There is still an oversupply of high density townhouses, and the apartment market continues to move slowly. At the same time, the traditional residential housing market is showing signs of improvement. Buyer enquiry has lifted, and activity is becoming more consistent, particularly in well located, family friendly homes.
When it comes to predictions, mine for 2024 and 2025 were wrong, just like Tony Alexander and most other economists and experts over the past 2 years. Forecasting property markets is humbling, especially in periods of structural change. Looking ahead to 2026, I would be very comfortable with price growth in the 3% to 5% range. My expectation for Auckland is an average increase of around 4.5% in 2026.
This is not a boom market. It is not a crash market. It is a reset market. Clear thinking, good advice, and realistic expectations will matter more than ever as we move through the next phase of the cycle.